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Sakhalin vs FK Sokol Saratov — Second League - Group 3 2020

Sakhalin
Sakhalin
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
9/5/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 8Stadion Znamya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Sakhalin30%
×Draw29%
FK Sokol Saratov41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sakhalin
1.01
FK Sokol Saratov
1.22

FK Sokol Saratov creates 21% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 48 away

creates per match

Sakhalin
1.29
FK Sokol Saratov
1.38

allows per match

Sakhalin
1.06
FK Sokol Saratov
0.73

finishing

Sakhalin+0.00on par
FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakhalin ↓

FK Sokol Saratov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sakhalin or draw
59%
Sakhalin or FK Sokol Saratov
71%
Draw or FK Sokol Saratov
70%

Winning margin

Sakhalin wins by 2+
11%
FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sakhalin 1+ goals
64%
Sakhalin 2+ goals
27%
Sakhalin 3+ goals
8%
FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
70%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
34%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sakhalin (draw refunded)
43%
FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakhalin at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

FK Sokol Saratov away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.73 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakhalin attack 1.29 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.01

FK Sokol Saratov attack 1.38 + Sakhalin defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sakhalin scores more
30%
level
29%
FK Sokol Saratov scores more
41%

FK Sokol Saratov at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FK Sokol Saratov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sakhalin vs FK Sokol Saratov

FK Sokol Saratov beat Sakhalin 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on September 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Znamya in Noginsk.