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Sakhalin vs Dinamo Vladivostok — Cup 2019

Sakhalin
Sakhalin
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dinamo Vladivostok
Dinamo Vladivostok
7/14/2021CupCup · 1st RoundArena Chertanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sakhalin15%
×Draw22%
Dinamo Vladivostok63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sakhalin
0.80
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.90

Dinamo Vladivostok creates 137% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sakhalin
0.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.80

allows per match

Sakhalin
2.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.60

finishing

Sakhalin+0.00on par
Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakhalin ↓

Dinamo Vladivostok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sakhalin or draw
37%
Sakhalin or Dinamo Vladivostok
78%
Draw or Dinamo Vladivostok
85%

Winning margin

Sakhalin wins by 2+
4%
Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Sakhalin 1+ goals
55%
Sakhalin 2+ goals
19%
Sakhalin 3+ goals
5%
Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals
85%
Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals
56%
Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Sakhalin (draw refunded)
19%
Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakhalin at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Dinamo Vladivostok away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakhalin attack 0.00 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.80 + Sakhalin defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sakhalin scores more
15%
level
22%
Dinamo Vladivostok scores more
63%

Dinamo Vladivostok at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Dinamo Vladivostok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Sakhalin 0–2 Dinamo Vladivostok

Dinamo Vladivostok beat Sakhalin 2-0 in Cup on July 14, 2021.

The match was played at Arena Chertanovo in Moskva.