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Dinamo Vladivostok vs Sakhalin — Second League - Group 3 2020

Dinamo Vladivostok
Dinamo Vladivostok
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sakhalin
Sakhalin
10/4/2023Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Dinamo Vladivostok60%
×Draw23%
Sakhalin17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Vladivostok
1.74
Sakhalin
0.80

Dinamo Vladivostok creates 117% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 70 away

creates per match

Dinamo Vladivostok
1.61
Sakhalin
0.77

allows per match

Dinamo Vladivostok
0.84
Sakhalin
1.86

finishing

Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par
Sakhalin+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vladivostok ↓

Sakhalin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dinamo Vladivostok or draw
83%
Dinamo Vladivostok or Sakhalin
77%
Draw or Sakhalin
40%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+
34%
Sakhalin wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals
82%
Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals
52%
Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals
25%
Sakhalin 1+ goals
55%
Sakhalin 2+ goals
19%
Sakhalin 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)
78%
Sakhalin (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vladivostok at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.84 · 56 matches

Sakhalin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.86 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.61 + Sakhalin defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.74

Sakhalin attack 0.77 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dinamo Vladivostok scores more
60%
level
23%
Sakhalin scores more
17%

Dinamo Vladivostok at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dinamo Vladivostok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Vladivostok vs Sakhalin

Dinamo Vladivostok beat Sakhalin 2-0 in Second League - Group 3 on October 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Vladivostok.