Sakaryaspor 1–0 Erzurumspor FK: Result & Stats

Sakaryaspor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Erzurumspor FK

E. Demir 52'

4/27/2025

1. Lig · Round 36Yeni Sakarya Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Sakaryaspor41%

×Draw27%

Erzurumspor FK32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SakaryasporExpected goals in this matchErzurumspor FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.12

Sakaryaspor

1.31

Erzurumspor FK

1.12

Sakaryaspor creates 17% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 110 away

1.56

creates per match

1.16

1.08

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Sakaryaspor

1.56

Erzurumspor FK

1.16

allows per match

Sakaryaspor

1.08

Erzurumspor FK

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sakaryaspor+0.00on par

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakaryaspor ↓

Erzurumspor FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sakaryaspor or draw

68%

Sakaryaspor or Erzurumspor FK

73%

Draw or Erzurumspor FK

59%

Winning margin

Sakaryaspor wins by 2+

19%

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sakaryaspor 1+ goals

73%

Sakaryaspor 2+ goals

38%

Sakaryaspor 3+ goals

14%

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

67%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

31%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sakaryaspor (draw refunded)

56%

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakaryaspor at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.08 · 73 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.06 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakaryaspor attack 1.56 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.31

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.16 + Sakaryaspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sakaryaspor scores more

41%

level

27%

Erzurumspor FK scores more

32%

Sakaryaspor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sakaryaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

J. Szumski

Sakaryaspor · G

7.7

Match Events

18'

Y. Kırtay← F. Özhan

20'

Nsana Simon

45'

Yakup Kırtay

52'

E. Demir↳ B. Altıparmak

54'

55'

56'

57'

66'

E. Altıntaş← M. Ertürk

72'

Burak Çoban

74'

Ö. Şişmanoğlu← E. Demir

75'

Burak Altıparmak

84'

B. Çakır← B. Çoban

88'

İ. Sever← O. Ovacıklı

90+5'

Oğuzhan Çapar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SakaryasporErzurumspor

Overview

44%Possession56%

7Total Shots12

3Corners12

19Fouls9

Shots

7Total Shots12

3On Target3

1Off Target7

3Blocked2

5Inside Box8

2Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

299Total Passes362

205Accurate Passes271

69%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls9

5Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1