Sakaryaspor 2–0 Diyarbekirspor: Result & Stats

Sakaryaspor

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Diyarbekirspor

11/5/2020

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundSakarya Atatürk Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sakaryaspor68%

×Draw19%

Diyarbekirspor13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SakaryasporExpected goals in this matchDiyarbekirspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.85

Sakaryaspor

2.23

Diyarbekirspor

0.85

Sakaryaspor creates 162% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.80

creates per match

0.50

1.20

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Sakaryaspor

1.80

Diyarbekirspor

0.50

allows per match

Sakaryaspor

1.20

Diyarbekirspor

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sakaryaspor+0.00on par

Diyarbekirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakaryaspor ↓

Diyarbekirspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sakaryaspor or draw

87%

Sakaryaspor or Diyarbekirspor

81%

Draw or Diyarbekirspor

32%

Winning margin

Sakaryaspor wins by 2+

45%

Diyarbekirspor wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sakaryaspor 1+ goals

89%

Sakaryaspor 2+ goals

65%

Sakaryaspor 3+ goals

38%

Diyarbekirspor 1+ goals

57%

Diyarbekirspor 2+ goals

21%

Diyarbekirspor 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sakaryaspor (draw refunded)

84%

Diyarbekirspor (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakaryaspor at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Diyarbekirspor away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakaryaspor attack 1.80 + Diyarbekirspor defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.23

Diyarbekirspor attack 0.50 + Sakaryaspor defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Sakaryaspor scores more

68%

level

19%

Diyarbekirspor scores more

13%

Sakaryaspor at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Sakaryaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff