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Sakaryaspor vs Çorum FK — 1. Lig 2018

Sakaryaspor
Sakaryaspor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Çorum FK
Çorum FK
2/8/20251. Lig1. Lig · Round 23Yeni Sakarya Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sakaryaspor40%
×Draw26%
Çorum FK33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sakaryaspor
1.37
Çorum FK
1.22

Sakaryaspor creates 12% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 57 away

creates per match

Sakaryaspor
1.56
Çorum FK
1.35

allows per match

Sakaryaspor
1.08
Çorum FK
1.18

finishing

Sakaryaspor+0.00on par
Çorum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakaryaspor ↓

Çorum FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sakaryaspor or draw
67%
Sakaryaspor or Çorum FK
74%
Draw or Çorum FK
60%

Winning margin

Sakaryaspor wins by 2+
19%
Çorum FK wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sakaryaspor 1+ goals
75%
Sakaryaspor 2+ goals
40%
Sakaryaspor 3+ goals
16%
Çorum FK 1+ goals
70%
Çorum FK 2+ goals
34%
Çorum FK 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sakaryaspor (draw refunded)
55%
Çorum FK (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakaryaspor at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.08 · 73 matches

Çorum FK away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakaryaspor attack 1.56 + Çorum FK defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.37

Çorum FK attack 1.35 + Sakaryaspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sakaryaspor scores more
40%
level
26%
Çorum FK scores more
33%

Sakaryaspor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sakaryaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Sakaryaspor 2–1 Çorum FK

Sakaryaspor beat Çorum FK 2-1 in 1. Lig on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at Yeni Sakarya Atatürk Stadyumu in Adapazarı.