Sakaryaspor 2–0 Beykoz Anadolu: Result & Stats

Sakaryaspor

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Beykoz Anadolu

8/29/2022

1. Lig · Round 3Yeni Sakarya Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sakaryaspor47%

×Draw26%

Beykoz Anadolu28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SakaryasporExpected goals in this matchBeykoz Anadolu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.10

Sakaryaspor

1.51

Beykoz Anadolu

1.10

Sakaryaspor creates 37% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 69 away

1.56

creates per match

1.13

1.08

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Sakaryaspor

1.56

Beykoz Anadolu

1.13

allows per match

Sakaryaspor

1.08

Beykoz Anadolu

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sakaryaspor+0.00on par

Beykoz Anadolu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakaryaspor ↓

Beykoz Anadolu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sakaryaspor or draw

72%

Sakaryaspor or Beykoz Anadolu

74%

Draw or Beykoz Anadolu

53%

Winning margin

Sakaryaspor wins by 2+

23%

Beykoz Anadolu wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sakaryaspor 1+ goals

78%

Sakaryaspor 2+ goals

44%

Sakaryaspor 3+ goals

19%

Beykoz Anadolu 1+ goals

67%

Beykoz Anadolu 2+ goals

30%

Beykoz Anadolu 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sakaryaspor (draw refunded)

63%

Beykoz Anadolu (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakaryaspor at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.08 · 73 matches

Beykoz Anadolu away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.46 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakaryaspor attack 1.56 + Beykoz Anadolu defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.51

Beykoz Anadolu attack 1.13 + Sakaryaspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sakaryaspor scores more

47%

level

26%

Beykoz Anadolu scores more

28%

Sakaryaspor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sakaryaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff