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Sakaryaspor vs Ankaraspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Sakaryaspor
Sakaryaspor
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ankaraspor
Ankaraspor
12/6/2023Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundSapanca Atatürk Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sakaryaspor45%
×Draw23%
Ankaraspor33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sakaryaspor
1.81
Ankaraspor
1.52

Sakaryaspor creates 19% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sakaryaspor
1.80
Ankaraspor
1.83

allows per match

Sakaryaspor
1.20
Ankaraspor
1.83

finishing

Sakaryaspor+0.00on par
Ankaraspor+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakaryaspor ↓

Ankaraspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sakaryaspor or draw
67%
Sakaryaspor or Ankaraspor
77%
Draw or Ankaraspor
55%

Winning margin

Sakaryaspor wins by 2+
24%
Ankaraspor wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sakaryaspor 1+ goals
84%
Sakaryaspor 2+ goals
54%
Sakaryaspor 3+ goals
27%
Ankaraspor 1+ goals
78%
Ankaraspor 2+ goals
45%
Ankaraspor 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sakaryaspor (draw refunded)
58%
Ankaraspor (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakaryaspor at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Ankaraspor away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakaryaspor attack 1.80 + Ankaraspor defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.81

Ankaraspor attack 1.83 + Sakaryaspor defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sakaryaspor scores more
45%
level
23%
Ankaraspor scores more
33%

Sakaryaspor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sakaryaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Sakaryaspor 1–0 Ankaraspor

Sakaryaspor beat Ankaraspor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Sapanca Atatürk Stadı in Sapanca.