Sakaryaspor 2–0 Adanaspor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Sakaryaspor

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Adanaspor

10/21/2023

1. Lig · Round 9Yeni Sakarya Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Sakaryaspor51%

×Draw25%

Adanaspor24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SakaryasporExpected goals in this matchAdanaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.99

Sakaryaspor

1.59

Adanaspor

0.99

Sakaryaspor creates 61% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 117 away

1.56

creates per match

0.89

1.08

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Sakaryaspor

1.56

Adanaspor

0.89

allows per match

Sakaryaspor

1.08

Adanaspor

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sakaryaspor+0.00on par

Adanaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakaryaspor ↓

Adanaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sakaryaspor or draw

76%

Sakaryaspor or Adanaspor

75%

Draw or Adanaspor

49%

Winning margin

Sakaryaspor wins by 2+

27%

Adanaspor wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sakaryaspor 1+ goals

80%

Sakaryaspor 2+ goals

47%

Sakaryaspor 3+ goals

21%

Adanaspor 1+ goals

63%

Adanaspor 2+ goals

26%

Adanaspor 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sakaryaspor (draw refunded)

68%

Adanaspor (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakaryaspor at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.08 · 73 matches

Adanaspor away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.62 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakaryaspor attack 1.56 + Adanaspor defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.59

Adanaspor attack 0.89 + Sakaryaspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sakaryaspor scores more

51%

level

25%

Adanaspor scores more

24%

Sakaryaspor at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sakaryaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff