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SAK Klagenfurt vs St. Michael Bleiburg — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

SAK Klagenfurt
SAK Klagenfurt
FT
1 – 1
St. Michael Bleiburg
St. Michael Bleiburg
6/3/2022Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 32Sportplatz Welzenegg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

SAK Klagenfurt54%
×Draw22%
St. Michael Bleiburg24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SAK Klagenfurt
1.96
St. Michael Bleiburg
1.23

SAK Klagenfurt creates 59% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 31 away

creates per match

SAK Klagenfurt
1.89
St. Michael Bleiburg
1.16

allows per match

SAK Klagenfurt
1.30
St. Michael Bleiburg
2.03

finishing

SAK Klagenfurt+0.00on par
St. Michael Bleiburg+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SAK Klagenfurt ↓

St. Michael Bleiburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

SAK Klagenfurt or draw
76%
SAK Klagenfurt or St. Michael Bleiburg
78%
Draw or St. Michael Bleiburg
46%

Winning margin

SAK Klagenfurt wins by 2+
31%
St. Michael Bleiburg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SAK Klagenfurt 1+ goals
86%
SAK Klagenfurt 2+ goals
58%
SAK Klagenfurt 3+ goals
31%
St. Michael Bleiburg 1+ goals
71%
St. Michael Bleiburg 2+ goals
35%
St. Michael Bleiburg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

SAK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
69%
St. Michael Bleiburg (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SAK Klagenfurt at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

St. Michael Bleiburg away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SAK Klagenfurt attack 1.89 + St. Michael Bleiburg defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.96

St. Michael Bleiburg attack 1.16 + SAK Klagenfurt defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

SAK Klagenfurt scores more
54%
level
22%
St. Michael Bleiburg scores more
24%

SAK Klagenfurt at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "SAK Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SAK Klagenfurt vs St. Michael Bleiburg

SAK Klagenfurt and St. Michael Bleiburg drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on June 3, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Welzenegg in Klagenfurt am Wörthersee.