SAK Klagenfurt 1–1 SC Landskron: Result & Stats

SAK Klagenfurt

FT

1 – 1

SC Landskron

5/3/2024

Landesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 23Sportplatz Welzenegg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

SAK Klagenfurt55%

×Draw21%

SC Landskron24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SAK KlagenfurtExpected goals in this matchSC Landskron

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.34

SAK Klagenfurt

2.12

SC Landskron

1.34

SAK Klagenfurt creates 58% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 31 away

1.89

creates per match

1.39

1.30

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

SAK Klagenfurt

1.89

SC Landskron

1.39

allows per match

SAK Klagenfurt

1.30

SC Landskron

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SAK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

SC Landskron+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SAK Klagenfurt ↓

SC Landskron →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

SAK Klagenfurt or draw

76%

SAK Klagenfurt or SC Landskron

79%

Draw or SC Landskron

45%

Winning margin

SAK Klagenfurt wins by 2+

33%

SC Landskron wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

SAK Klagenfurt 1+ goals

88%

SAK Klagenfurt 2+ goals

62%

SAK Klagenfurt 3+ goals

35%

SC Landskron 1+ goals

74%

SC Landskron 2+ goals

39%

SC Landskron 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

SAK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)

70%

SC Landskron (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SAK Klagenfurt at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

SC Landskron away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SAK Klagenfurt attack 1.89 + SC Landskron defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.12

SC Landskron attack 1.39 + SAK Klagenfurt defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

SAK Klagenfurt scores more

55%

level

21%

SC Landskron scores more

24%

SAK Klagenfurt at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SAK Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff