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SAK Klagenfurt vs Maria Saal — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

SAK Klagenfurt
SAK Klagenfurt
FT
7 – 2
Maria Saal
Maria Saal
4/22/2022Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 24Sportplatz Welzenegg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

SAK Klagenfurt56%
×Draw20%
Maria Saal23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SAK Klagenfurt
2.21
Maria Saal
1.36

SAK Klagenfurt creates 62% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 49 away

creates per match

SAK Klagenfurt
1.89
Maria Saal
1.43

allows per match

SAK Klagenfurt
1.30
Maria Saal
2.53

finishing

SAK Klagenfurt+0.00on par
Maria Saal+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SAK Klagenfurt ↓

Maria Saal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

SAK Klagenfurt or draw
77%
SAK Klagenfurt or Maria Saal
80%
Draw or Maria Saal
44%

Winning margin

SAK Klagenfurt wins by 2+
35%
Maria Saal wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SAK Klagenfurt 1+ goals
89%
SAK Klagenfurt 2+ goals
65%
SAK Klagenfurt 3+ goals
38%
Maria Saal 1+ goals
74%
Maria Saal 2+ goals
39%
Maria Saal 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

SAK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
71%
Maria Saal (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SAK Klagenfurt at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Maria Saal away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.53 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SAK Klagenfurt attack 1.89 + Maria Saal defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.21

Maria Saal attack 1.43 + SAK Klagenfurt defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

SAK Klagenfurt scores more
56%
level
20%
Maria Saal scores more
23%

SAK Klagenfurt at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "SAK Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SAK Klagenfurt vs Maria Saal

SAK Klagenfurt beat Maria Saal 7-2 in Landesliga - Karnten on April 22, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Welzenegg in Klagenfurt am Wörthersee.