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SAK Klagenfurt vs Gmünd — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

SAK Klagenfurt
SAK Klagenfurt
FT
1 – 0
Gmünd
Gmünd
6/10/2022Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 33Sportplatz Welzenegg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

SAK Klagenfurt52%
×Draw23%
Gmünd25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SAK Klagenfurt
1.84
Gmünd
1.21

SAK Klagenfurt creates 52% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 48 away

creates per match

SAK Klagenfurt
1.89
Gmünd
1.13

allows per match

SAK Klagenfurt
1.30
Gmünd
1.79

finishing

SAK Klagenfurt+0.00on par
Gmünd+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SAK Klagenfurt ↓

Gmünd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

SAK Klagenfurt or draw
75%
SAK Klagenfurt or Gmünd
77%
Draw or Gmünd
48%

Winning margin

SAK Klagenfurt wins by 2+
29%
Gmünd wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SAK Klagenfurt 1+ goals
84%
SAK Klagenfurt 2+ goals
55%
SAK Klagenfurt 3+ goals
28%
Gmünd 1+ goals
70%
Gmünd 2+ goals
34%
Gmünd 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

SAK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
67%
Gmünd (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SAK Klagenfurt at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Gmünd away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.79 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SAK Klagenfurt attack 1.89 + Gmünd defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.84

Gmünd attack 1.13 + SAK Klagenfurt defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

SAK Klagenfurt scores more
52%
level
23%
Gmünd scores more
25%

SAK Klagenfurt at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SAK Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SAK Klagenfurt vs Gmünd

SAK Klagenfurt beat Gmünd 1-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on June 10, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Welzenegg in Klagenfurt am Wörthersee.