SAK Klagenfurt 2–3 Bad Gleichenberg: Result & Stats

SAK Klagenfurt

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Bad Gleichenberg

9/16/2022

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 9Sportplatz Welzenegg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

SAK Klagenfurt32%

×Draw21%

Bad Gleichenberg47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SAK KlagenfurtExpected goals in this matchBad Gleichenberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

2.11

SAK Klagenfurt

1.72

Bad Gleichenberg

2.11

Bad Gleichenberg creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 75 away

1.40

creates per match

1.75

2.47

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

SAK Klagenfurt

1.40

Bad Gleichenberg

1.75

allows per match

SAK Klagenfurt

2.47

Bad Gleichenberg

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SAK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SAK Klagenfurt ↓

Bad Gleichenberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

SAK Klagenfurt or draw

53%

SAK Klagenfurt or Bad Gleichenberg

79%

Draw or Bad Gleichenberg

68%

Winning margin

SAK Klagenfurt wins by 2+

16%

Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

SAK Klagenfurt 1+ goals

82%

SAK Klagenfurt 2+ goals

51%

SAK Klagenfurt 3+ goals

25%

Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals

88%

Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals

62%

Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

SAK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)

41%

Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SAK Klagenfurt at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

Bad Gleichenberg away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.04 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SAK Klagenfurt attack 1.40 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.72

Bad Gleichenberg attack 1.75 + SAK Klagenfurt defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SAK Klagenfurt scores more

32%

level

21%

Bad Gleichenberg scores more

47%

Bad Gleichenberg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bad Gleichenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff