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SAK Klagenfurt vs Admira Villach — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

SAK Klagenfurt
SAK Klagenfurt
FT
5 – 0
Admira Villach
Admira Villach
3/25/2022Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 20Sportplatz Welzenegg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SAK Klagenfurt67%
×Draw18%
Admira Villach16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SAK Klagenfurt
2.48
Admira Villach
1.12

SAK Klagenfurt creates 121% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 17 away

creates per match

SAK Klagenfurt
1.89
Admira Villach
0.94

allows per match

SAK Klagenfurt
1.30
Admira Villach
3.06

finishing

SAK Klagenfurt+0.00on par
Admira Villach+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SAK Klagenfurt ↓

Admira Villach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

SAK Klagenfurt or draw
84%
SAK Klagenfurt or Admira Villach
82%
Draw or Admira Villach
33%

Winning margin

SAK Klagenfurt wins by 2+
45%
Admira Villach wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

SAK Klagenfurt 1+ goals
92%
SAK Klagenfurt 2+ goals
70%
SAK Klagenfurt 3+ goals
44%
Admira Villach 1+ goals
67%
Admira Villach 2+ goals
31%
Admira Villach 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SAK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
81%
Admira Villach (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SAK Klagenfurt at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Admira Villach away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SAK Klagenfurt attack 1.89 + Admira Villach defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.48

Admira Villach attack 0.94 + SAK Klagenfurt defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

SAK Klagenfurt scores more
67%
level
18%
Admira Villach scores more
16%

SAK Klagenfurt at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "SAK Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: SAK Klagenfurt 5–0 Admira Villach

SAK Klagenfurt beat Admira Villach 5-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on March 25, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Welzenegg in Klagenfurt am Wörthersee.