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Sajóbábony Vegyész vs Salgótarján — NB III - Northeast 2019

Sajóbábony Vegyész
Sajóbábony Vegyész
FT
3 – 2
Salgótarján
Salgótarján
10/4/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 12Sajóbábonyi VSE Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sajóbábony Vegyész49%
×Draw22%
Salgótarján29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sajóbábony Vegyész
1.95
Salgótarján
1.48

Sajóbábony Vegyész creates 32% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sajóbábony Vegyész
1.21
Salgótarján
1.16

allows per match

Sajóbábony Vegyész
1.79
Salgótarján
2.68

finishing

Sajóbábony Vegyész+0.00on par
Salgótarján+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sajóbábony Vegyész ↓

Salgótarján →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sajóbábony Vegyész or draw
71%
Sajóbábony Vegyész or Salgótarján
78%
Draw or Salgótarján
51%

Winning margin

Sajóbábony Vegyész wins by 2+
27%
Salgótarján wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sajóbábony Vegyész 1+ goals
86%
Sajóbábony Vegyész 2+ goals
58%
Sajóbábony Vegyész 3+ goals
31%
Salgótarján 1+ goals
77%
Salgótarján 2+ goals
43%
Salgótarján 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sajóbábony Vegyész (draw refunded)
62%
Salgótarján (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sajóbábony Vegyész at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Salgótarján away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sajóbábony Vegyész attack 1.21 + Salgótarján defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 1.95

Salgótarján attack 1.16 + Sajóbábony Vegyész defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sajóbábony Vegyész scores more
49%
level
22%
Salgótarján scores more
29%

Sajóbábony Vegyész at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sajóbábony Vegyész will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Sajóbábony Vegyész 3–2 Salgótarján

Sajóbábony Vegyész beat Salgótarján 3-2 in NB III - Northeast on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Sajóbábonyi VSE Sporttelep in Sajóbábonyi.