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Sajóbábony Vegyész vs Kisvárda II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Sajóbábony Vegyész
Sajóbábony Vegyész
FT
0 – 2
Kisvárda II
Kisvárda II
3/27/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 26Sajóbábonyi VSE Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sajóbábony Vegyész28%
×Draw25%
Kisvárda II47%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sajóbábony Vegyész
1.19
Kisvárda II
1.61

Kisvárda II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 102 away

creates per match

Sajóbábony Vegyész
1.21
Kisvárda II
1.44

allows per match

Sajóbábony Vegyész
1.79
Kisvárda II
1.17

finishing

Sajóbábony Vegyész+0.00on par
Kisvárda II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sajóbábony Vegyész ↓

Kisvárda II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sajóbábony Vegyész or draw
53%
Sajóbábony Vegyész or Kisvárda II
75%
Draw or Kisvárda II
72%

Winning margin

Sajóbábony Vegyész wins by 2+
11%
Kisvárda II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Sajóbábony Vegyész 1+ goals
70%
Sajóbábony Vegyész 2+ goals
33%
Sajóbábony Vegyész 3+ goals
12%
Kisvárda II 1+ goals
80%
Kisvárda II 2+ goals
48%
Kisvárda II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sajóbábony Vegyész (draw refunded)
37%
Kisvárda II (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sajóbábony Vegyész at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Kisvárda II away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.17 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sajóbábony Vegyész attack 1.21 + Kisvárda II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Kisvárda II attack 1.44 + Sajóbábony Vegyész defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sajóbábony Vegyész scores more
28%
level
25%
Kisvárda II scores more
47%

Kisvárda II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kisvárda II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sajóbábony Vegyész vs Kisvárda II

Kisvárda II beat Sajóbábony Vegyész 2-0 in NB III - Northeast on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at Sajóbábonyi VSE Sporttelep in Sajóbábonyi.