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Sajóbábony Vegyész vs Jászberényi Vasas — NB III - Northeast 2019

Sajóbábony Vegyész
Sajóbábony Vegyész
FT
0 – 3
Jászberényi Vasas
Jászberényi Vasas
12/6/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 21Sajóbábonyi VSE Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sajóbábony Vegyész43%
×Draw23%
Jászberényi Vasas34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sajóbábony Vegyész
1.71
Jászberényi Vasas
1.50

Sajóbábony Vegyész creates 14% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 66 away

creates per match

Sajóbábony Vegyész
1.21
Jászberényi Vasas
1.20

allows per match

Sajóbábony Vegyész
1.79
Jászberényi Vasas
2.21

finishing

Sajóbábony Vegyész+0.00on par
Jászberényi Vasas+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sajóbábony Vegyész ↓

Jászberényi Vasas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sajóbábony Vegyész or draw
66%
Sajóbábony Vegyész or Jászberényi Vasas
77%
Draw or Jászberényi Vasas
57%

Winning margin

Sajóbábony Vegyész wins by 2+
22%
Jászberényi Vasas wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sajóbábony Vegyész 1+ goals
82%
Sajóbábony Vegyész 2+ goals
51%
Sajóbábony Vegyész 3+ goals
24%
Jászberényi Vasas 1+ goals
78%
Jászberényi Vasas 2+ goals
44%
Jászberényi Vasas 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sajóbábony Vegyész (draw refunded)
56%
Jászberényi Vasas (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sajóbábony Vegyész at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Jászberényi Vasas away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.21 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sajóbábony Vegyész attack 1.21 + Jászberényi Vasas defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.71

Jászberényi Vasas attack 1.20 + Sajóbábony Vegyész defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sajóbábony Vegyész scores more
43%
level
23%
Jászberényi Vasas scores more
34%

Sajóbábony Vegyész at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sajóbábony Vegyész will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sajóbábony Vegyész vs Jászberényi Vasas

Jászberényi Vasas beat Sajóbábony Vegyész 3-0 in NB III - Northeast on December 6, 2020.

The match was played at Sajóbábonyi VSE Sporttelep in Sajóbábonyi.