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Sajóbábony Vegyész vs Diósgyőr II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Sajóbábony Vegyész
Sajóbábony Vegyész
FT
0 – 0
Diósgyőr II
Diósgyőr II
8/12/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 3Sajóbábonyi VSE Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sajóbábony Vegyész36%
×Draw24%
Diósgyőr II40%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sajóbábony Vegyész
1.46
Diósgyőr II
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 112 away

creates per match

Sajóbábony Vegyész
1.21
Diósgyőr II
1.30

allows per match

Sajóbábony Vegyész
1.79
Diósgyőr II
1.70

finishing

Sajóbábony Vegyész+0.00on par
Diósgyőr II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sajóbábony Vegyész ↓

Diósgyőr II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sajóbábony Vegyész or draw
60%
Sajóbábony Vegyész or Diósgyőr II
76%
Draw or Diósgyőr II
64%

Winning margin

Sajóbábony Vegyész wins by 2+
17%
Diósgyőr II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sajóbábony Vegyész 1+ goals
77%
Sajóbábony Vegyész 2+ goals
43%
Sajóbábony Vegyész 3+ goals
18%
Diósgyőr II 1+ goals
79%
Diósgyőr II 2+ goals
45%
Diósgyőr II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sajóbábony Vegyész (draw refunded)
48%
Diósgyőr II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sajóbábony Vegyész at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Diósgyőr II away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.70 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sajóbábony Vegyész attack 1.21 + Diósgyőr II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.46

Diósgyőr II attack 1.30 + Sajóbábony Vegyész defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sajóbábony Vegyész scores more
36%
level
24%
Diósgyőr II scores more
40%

Diósgyőr II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Diósgyőr II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Sajóbábony Vegyész 0–0 Diósgyőr II

Sajóbábony Vegyész and Diósgyőr II drew 0-0 in NB III - Northeast on August 12, 2020.

The match was played at Sajóbábonyi VSE Sporttelep in Sajóbábonyi.