Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sajóbábony Vegyész vs Cegledi VSE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Sajóbábony Vegyész
Sajóbábony Vegyész
FT
0 – 1
Cegledi VSE
Cegledi VSE
9/5/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 8Sajóbábonyi VSE Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sajóbábony Vegyész35%
×Draw26%
Cegledi VSE39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sajóbábony Vegyész
1.29
Cegledi VSE
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 27 away

creates per match

Sajóbábony Vegyész
1.21
Cegledi VSE
0.96

allows per match

Sajóbábony Vegyész
1.79
Cegledi VSE
1.37

finishing

Sajóbábony Vegyész+0.00on par
Cegledi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sajóbábony Vegyész ↓

Cegledi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sajóbábony Vegyész or draw
61%
Sajóbábony Vegyész or Cegledi VSE
74%
Draw or Cegledi VSE
65%

Winning margin

Sajóbábony Vegyész wins by 2+
15%
Cegledi VSE wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sajóbábony Vegyész 1+ goals
72%
Sajóbábony Vegyész 2+ goals
37%
Sajóbábony Vegyész 3+ goals
14%
Cegledi VSE 1+ goals
75%
Cegledi VSE 2+ goals
40%
Cegledi VSE 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sajóbábony Vegyész (draw refunded)
47%
Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sajóbábony Vegyész at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Cegledi VSE away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.37 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sajóbábony Vegyész attack 1.21 + Cegledi VSE defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cegledi VSE attack 0.96 + Sajóbábony Vegyész defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sajóbábony Vegyész scores more
35%
level
26%
Cegledi VSE scores more
39%

Cegledi VSE at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cegledi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Sajóbábony Vegyész 0–1 Cegledi VSE

Cegledi VSE beat Sajóbábony Vegyész 1-0 in NB III - Northeast on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Sajóbábonyi VSE Sporttelep in Sajóbábonyi.