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Saipa vs Shahre Raz — Azadegan League 2018

Saipa
Saipa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shahre Raz
Shahre Raz
4/16/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 29Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Saipa51%
×Draw30%
Shahre Raz19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saipa
1.22
Shahre Raz
0.61

Saipa creates 100% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 34 away

creates per match

Saipa
1.18
Shahre Raz
0.65

allows per match

Saipa
0.58
Shahre Raz
1.26

finishing

Saipa+0.00on par
Shahre Raz+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saipa ↓

Shahre Raz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Saipa or draw
81%
Saipa or Shahre Raz
70%
Draw or Shahre Raz
49%

Winning margin

Saipa wins by 2+
23%
Shahre Raz wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Saipa 1+ goals
70%
Saipa 2+ goals
34%
Saipa 3+ goals
12%
Shahre Raz 1+ goals
46%
Shahre Raz 2+ goals
13%
Shahre Raz 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Saipa (draw refunded)
73%
Shahre Raz (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saipa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.58 · 84 matches

Shahre Raz away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saipa attack 1.18 + Shahre Raz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.22

Shahre Raz attack 0.65 + Saipa defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Saipa scores more
51%
level
30%
Shahre Raz scores more
19%

Saipa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Saipa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Saipa 1–0 Shahre Raz

Saipa beat Shahre Raz 1-0 in Azadegan League on April 16, 2025.

The match was played at Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium in Teheran.