Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Saipa vs Shahrdari Hamedan — Azadegan League 2018

Saipa
Saipa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Shahrdari Hamedan
Shahrdari Hamedan
6/7/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 34Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Saipa48%
×Draw33%
Shahrdari Hamedan19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saipa
1.07
Shahrdari Hamedan
0.55

Saipa creates 95% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 33 away

creates per match

Saipa
1.18
Shahrdari Hamedan
0.52

allows per match

Saipa
0.58
Shahrdari Hamedan
0.97

finishing

Saipa+0.00on par
Shahrdari Hamedan+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saipa ↓

Shahrdari Hamedan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Saipa or draw
81%
Saipa or Shahrdari Hamedan
67%
Draw or Shahrdari Hamedan
52%

Winning margin

Saipa wins by 2+
20%
Shahrdari Hamedan wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Saipa 1+ goals
66%
Saipa 2+ goals
29%
Saipa 3+ goals
9%
Shahrdari Hamedan 1+ goals
42%
Shahrdari Hamedan 2+ goals
11%
Shahrdari Hamedan 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Saipa (draw refunded)
72%
Shahrdari Hamedan (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saipa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.58 · 84 matches

Shahrdari Hamedan away — creates 0.52, concedes 0.97 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saipa attack 1.18 + Shahrdari Hamedan defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.07

Shahrdari Hamedan attack 0.52 + Saipa defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Saipa scores more
48%
level
33%
Shahrdari Hamedan scores more
19%

Saipa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Saipa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saipa vs Shahrdari Hamedan

Saipa beat Shahrdari Hamedan 2-1 in Azadegan League on June 7, 2022.

The match was played at Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium in Teheran.