Saipa 1–0 Niroye Zamini: Result & Stats

Saipa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Niroye Zamini

S. Mehrabizadeh 67' (pen)

9/17/2025

Azadegan League · Round 4Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Saipa46%

×Draw32%

Niroye Zamini22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SaipaExpected goals in this matchNiroye Zamini

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.68

Saipa

1.13

Niroye Zamini

0.68

Saipa creates 66% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 49 away

1.18

creates per match

0.78

0.58

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Saipa

1.18

Niroye Zamini

0.78

allows per match

Saipa

0.58

Niroye Zamini

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saipa+0.00on par

Niroye Zamini+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saipa ↓

Niroye Zamini →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Saipa or draw

78%

Saipa or Niroye Zamini

68%

Draw or Niroye Zamini

54%

Winning margin

Saipa wins by 2+

20%

Niroye Zamini wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Saipa 1+ goals

68%

Saipa 2+ goals

31%

Saipa 3+ goals

11%

Niroye Zamini 1+ goals

49%

Niroye Zamini 2+ goals

15%

Niroye Zamini 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Saipa (draw refunded)

68%

Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saipa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.58 · 84 matches

Niroye Zamini away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saipa attack 1.18 + Niroye Zamini defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Niroye Zamini attack 0.78 + Saipa defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Saipa scores more

46%

level

32%

Niroye Zamini scores more

22%

Saipa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Saipa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'

S. MehrabizadehPenalty

90+9'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff