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Saipa vs Mes Kerman — Azadegan League 2018

Saipa
Saipa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
2/27/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 21Enghelab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Saipa40%
×Draw35%
Mes Kerman26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saipa
0.93
Mes Kerman
0.68

Saipa creates 37% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 116 away

creates per match

Saipa
1.18
Mes Kerman
0.78

allows per match

Saipa
0.58
Mes Kerman
0.69

finishing

Saipa+0.00on par
Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saipa ↓

Mes Kerman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Saipa or draw
74%
Saipa or Mes Kerman
65%
Draw or Mes Kerman
60%

Winning margin

Saipa wins by 2+
15%
Mes Kerman wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Saipa 1+ goals
61%
Saipa 2+ goals
24%
Saipa 3+ goals
7%
Mes Kerman 1+ goals
49%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
15%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Saipa (draw refunded)
61%
Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saipa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.58 · 84 matches

Mes Kerman away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.69 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saipa attack 1.18 + Mes Kerman defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.93

Mes Kerman attack 0.78 + Saipa defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Saipa scores more
40%
level
35%
Mes Kerman scores more
26%

Saipa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Saipa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Saipa 0–0 Mes Kerman

Saipa and Mes Kerman drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on February 27, 2024.

The match was played at Enghelab Stadium in Karadj.