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Saipa vs Malavan — Azadegan League 2018

Saipa
Saipa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Malavan
Malavan
1/1/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 12Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Saipa47%
×Draw32%
Malavan22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saipa
1.12
Malavan
0.66

Saipa creates 70% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 51 away

creates per match

Saipa
1.18
Malavan
0.73

allows per match

Saipa
0.58
Malavan
1.06

finishing

Saipa+0.00on par
Malavan+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saipa ↓

Malavan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Saipa or draw
78%
Saipa or Malavan
68%
Draw or Malavan
53%

Winning margin

Saipa wins by 2+
20%
Malavan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Saipa 1+ goals
67%
Saipa 2+ goals
31%
Saipa 3+ goals
10%
Malavan 1+ goals
48%
Malavan 2+ goals
14%
Malavan 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Saipa (draw refunded)
68%
Malavan (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saipa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.58 · 84 matches

Malavan away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saipa attack 1.18 + Malavan defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.12

Malavan attack 0.73 + Saipa defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Saipa scores more
47%
level
32%
Malavan scores more
22%

Saipa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Saipa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saipa vs Malavan

Saipa and Malavan drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on January 1, 2022.

The match was played at Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium in Teheran.