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Saipa vs Machine Sazi FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Saipa
Saipa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Machine Sazi FC
Machine Sazi FC
7/31/2020Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 27Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Saipa42%
×Draw32%
Machine Sazi FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saipa
1.09
Machine Sazi FC
0.79

Saipa creates 38% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Saipa
0.78
Machine Sazi FC
0.64

allows per match

Saipa
0.93
Machine Sazi FC
1.40

finishing

Saipa+0.00on par
Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saipa ↓

Machine Sazi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Saipa or draw
74%
Saipa or Machine Sazi FC
68%
Draw or Machine Sazi FC
58%

Winning margin

Saipa wins by 2+
17%
Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Saipa 1+ goals
66%
Saipa 2+ goals
30%
Saipa 3+ goals
10%
Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals
55%
Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals
19%
Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Saipa (draw refunded)
62%
Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saipa at home — creates 0.78, concedes 0.93 · 45 matches

Machine Sazi FC away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saipa attack 0.78 + Machine Sazi FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.09

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.64 + Saipa defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Saipa scores more
42%
level
32%
Machine Sazi FC scores more
26%

Saipa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Saipa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saipa vs Machine Sazi FC

Saipa beat Machine Sazi FC 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on July 31, 2020.

The match was played at Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium in Teheran.