Saipa 3–1 Khalij Fars: Result & Stats

Saipa

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Khalij Fars

11/6/2022

Azadegan League · Round 12Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Saipa61%

×Draw26%

Khalij Fars13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SaipaExpected goals in this matchKhalij Fars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.53

Saipa

1.51

Khalij Fars

0.53

Saipa creates 185% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 25 away

1.18

creates per match

0.48

0.58

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Saipa

1.18

Khalij Fars

0.48

allows per match

Saipa

0.58

Khalij Fars

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saipa+0.00on par

Khalij Fars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saipa ↓

Khalij Fars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–110%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Saipa or draw

87%

Saipa or Khalij Fars

74%

Draw or Khalij Fars

39%

Winning margin

Saipa wins by 2+

33%

Khalij Fars wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Saipa 1+ goals

78%

Saipa 2+ goals

44%

Saipa 3+ goals

19%

Khalij Fars 1+ goals

41%

Khalij Fars 2+ goals

10%

Khalij Fars 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Saipa (draw refunded)

83%

Khalij Fars (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saipa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.58 · 84 matches

Khalij Fars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saipa attack 1.18 + Khalij Fars defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.51

Khalij Fars attack 0.48 + Saipa defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Saipa scores more

61%

level

26%

Khalij Fars scores more

13%

Saipa at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Saipa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff