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Saipa vs Fajr Sepasi — Azadegan League 2018

Saipa
Saipa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
P. Golestan 61', 6'
A. Bouazar 57'
9/17/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 3Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Saipa39%
×Draw33%
Fajr Sepasi29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saipa
1.00
Fajr Sepasi
0.81

Saipa creates 23% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 83 away

creates per match

Saipa
1.18
Fajr Sepasi
1.04

allows per match

Saipa
0.58
Fajr Sepasi
0.82

finishing

Saipa+0.00on par
Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saipa ↓

Fajr Sepasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Saipa or draw
71%
Saipa or Fajr Sepasi
67%
Draw or Fajr Sepasi
61%

Winning margin

Saipa wins by 2+
15%
Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Saipa 1+ goals
63%
Saipa 2+ goals
26%
Saipa 3+ goals
8%
Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
56%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
19%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Saipa (draw refunded)
58%
Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saipa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.58 · 84 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.82 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saipa attack 1.18 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.00

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.04 + Saipa defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Saipa scores more
39%
level
33%
Fajr Sepasi scores more
29%

Saipa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Saipa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
P. Golestan
57'
A. Bouazar
61'
P. Golestan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Saipa 2–1 Fajr Sepasi

Saipa beat Fajr Sepasi 2-1 in Azadegan League on September 17, 2023.

Goals: P. Golestan (6', 61'), A. Bouazar (57').

The match was played at Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium in Teheran.