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Saipa vs Esteghlal Mollasani — Azadegan League 2018

Saipa
Saipa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
10/1/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 5Enghelab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Saipa49%
×Draw30%
Esteghlal Mollasani21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saipa
1.25
Esteghlal Mollasani
0.70

Saipa creates 79% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 68 away

creates per match

Saipa
1.18
Esteghlal Mollasani
0.82

allows per match

Saipa
0.58
Esteghlal Mollasani
1.31

finishing

Saipa+0.00on par
Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saipa ↓

Esteghlal Mollasani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Saipa or draw
79%
Saipa or Esteghlal Mollasani
70%
Draw or Esteghlal Mollasani
51%

Winning margin

Saipa wins by 2+
23%
Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Saipa 1+ goals
71%
Saipa 2+ goals
36%
Saipa 3+ goals
13%
Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
50%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
16%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Saipa (draw refunded)
70%
Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saipa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.58 · 84 matches

Esteghlal Mollasani away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saipa attack 1.18 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 0.82 + Saipa defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Saipa scores more
49%
level
30%
Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
21%

Saipa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Saipa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Saipa 2–0 Esteghlal Mollasani

Saipa beat Esteghlal Mollasani 2-0 in Azadegan League on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Enghelab Stadium in Karadj.