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Saipa vs Esteghlal Khuzestan — Azadegan League 2018

Saipa
Saipa
FT
1 – 1
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
M. Heydari 55'
M. Momeni 47'
10/16/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 1Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Saipa43%
×Draw32%
Esteghlal Khuzestan26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saipa
1.09
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.77

Saipa creates 42% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 63 away

creates per match

Saipa
1.18
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.97

allows per match

Saipa
0.58
Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.00

finishing

Saipa+0.00on par
Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saipa ↓

Esteghlal Khuzestan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Saipa or draw
74%
Saipa or Esteghlal Khuzestan
68%
Draw or Esteghlal Khuzestan
57%

Winning margin

Saipa wins by 2+
18%
Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Saipa 1+ goals
66%
Saipa 2+ goals
30%
Saipa 3+ goals
10%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
54%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
18%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Saipa (draw refunded)
63%
Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saipa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.58 · 84 matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saipa attack 1.18 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 0.97 + Saipa defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Saipa scores more
43%
level
32%
Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
26%

Saipa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Saipa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
M. Momeni
55'
M. Heydari

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saipa vs Esteghlal Khuzestan

Saipa and Esteghlal Khuzestan drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on October 16, 2021.

Goals: M. Momeni (47'), M. Heydari (55').

The match was played at Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium in Teheran.