Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Saipa vs Damash Gilanian — Azadegan League 2018

Saipa
Saipa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Damash Gilanian
Damash Gilanian
2/16/2026Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Saipa58%
×Draw27%
Damash Gilanian14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saipa
1.40
Damash Gilanian
0.54

Saipa creates 159% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 64 away

creates per match

Saipa
1.18
Damash Gilanian
0.50

allows per match

Saipa
0.58
Damash Gilanian
1.63

finishing

Saipa+0.00on par
Damash Gilanian+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saipa ↓

Damash Gilanian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Saipa or draw
86%
Saipa or Damash Gilanian
73%
Draw or Damash Gilanian
42%

Winning margin

Saipa wins by 2+
29%
Damash Gilanian wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Saipa 1+ goals
75%
Saipa 2+ goals
41%
Saipa 3+ goals
17%
Damash Gilanian 1+ goals
42%
Damash Gilanian 2+ goals
10%
Damash Gilanian 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Saipa (draw refunded)
80%
Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saipa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.58 · 84 matches

Damash Gilanian away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.63 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saipa attack 1.18 + Damash Gilanian defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Damash Gilanian attack 0.50 + Saipa defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Saipa scores more
58%
level
27%
Damash Gilanian scores more
14%

Saipa at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Saipa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Saipa 1–1 Damash Gilanian

Saipa and Damash Gilanian drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on February 16, 2026.