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Saipa vs Chooka Talesh — Azadegan League 2018

Saipa
Saipa
FT
0 – 0
Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
4/5/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 28Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Saipa58%
×Draw27%
Chooka Talesh15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saipa
1.46
Chooka Talesh
0.59

Saipa creates 147% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 33 away

creates per match

Saipa
1.18
Chooka Talesh
0.61

allows per match

Saipa
0.58
Chooka Talesh
1.73

finishing

Saipa+0.00on par
Chooka Talesh+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saipa ↓

Chooka Talesh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Saipa or draw
85%
Saipa or Chooka Talesh
73%
Draw or Chooka Talesh
42%

Winning margin

Saipa wins by 2+
30%
Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Saipa 1+ goals
77%
Saipa 2+ goals
43%
Saipa 3+ goals
18%
Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
45%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
12%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Saipa (draw refunded)
80%
Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saipa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.58 · 84 matches

Chooka Talesh away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saipa attack 1.18 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Chooka Talesh attack 0.61 + Saipa defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Saipa scores more
58%
level
27%
Chooka Talesh scores more
15%

Saipa at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Saipa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Saipa 0–0 Chooka Talesh

Saipa and Chooka Talesh drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on April 5, 2023.

The match was played at Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium in Teheran.