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Saipa vs Arman Gohar — Azadegan League 2018

Saipa
Saipa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Arman Gohar
Arman Gohar
11/18/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 14Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Saipa50%
×Draw29%
Arman Gohar21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saipa
1.31
Arman Gohar
0.74

Saipa creates 77% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 68 away

creates per match

Saipa
1.18
Arman Gohar
0.90

allows per match

Saipa
0.58
Arman Gohar
1.44

finishing

Saipa+0.00on par
Arman Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saipa ↓

Arman Gohar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Saipa or draw
79%
Saipa or Arman Gohar
71%
Draw or Arman Gohar
50%

Winning margin

Saipa wins by 2+
24%
Arman Gohar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Saipa 1+ goals
73%
Saipa 2+ goals
38%
Saipa 3+ goals
14%
Arman Gohar 1+ goals
52%
Arman Gohar 2+ goals
17%
Arman Gohar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Saipa (draw refunded)
70%
Arman Gohar (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saipa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.58 · 84 matches

Arman Gohar away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saipa attack 1.18 + Arman Gohar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.31

Arman Gohar attack 0.90 + Saipa defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Saipa scores more
50%
level
29%
Arman Gohar scores more
21%

Saipa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Saipa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Saipa 2–1 Arman Gohar

Saipa beat Arman Gohar 2-1 in Azadegan League on November 18, 2022.

The match was played at Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium in Teheran.