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Saint-Priest vs Valenciennes — Coupe de France 2018

Saint-Priest
Saint-Priest
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Valenciennes
Valenciennesadvanced
2/7/2024Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 16Stade Pierre Rajon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Saint-Priest38%
×Draw25%
Valenciennes37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint-Priest
1.47
Valenciennes
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 14 away

creates per match

Saint-Priest
2.00
Valenciennes
1.86

allows per match

Saint-Priest
1.00
Valenciennes
0.93

finishing

Saint-Priest+0.00on par
Valenciennes+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint-Priest ↓

Valenciennes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Saint-Priest or draw
63%
Saint-Priest or Valenciennes
75%
Draw or Valenciennes
62%

Winning margin

Saint-Priest wins by 2+
18%
Valenciennes wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Saint-Priest 1+ goals
77%
Saint-Priest 2+ goals
43%
Saint-Priest 3+ goals
18%
Valenciennes 1+ goals
76%
Valenciennes 2+ goals
42%
Valenciennes 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Saint-Priest (draw refunded)
51%
Valenciennes (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint-Priest at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Valenciennes away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint-Priest attack 2.00 + Valenciennes defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.47

Valenciennes attack 1.86 + Saint-Priest defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Saint-Priest scores more
38%
level
25%
Valenciennes scores more
37%

Saint-Priest at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Saint-Priest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Saint-Priest 1–2 Valenciennes

Valenciennes beat Saint-Priest 2-1 in Coupe de France on February 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Pierre Rajon in Bourgoin-Jallieu.