Saint-Pierroise 1–1 Mtsapere: Result & Stats

Saint-Pierroise

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Mtsapere

L. Rivière 22'

D. Ali Nokowa 80'

12/20/2020

Coupe de France · 8th RoundStade Michel Volnay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Saint-Pierroise42%

×Draw24%

Mtsapere34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saint-PierroiseExpected goals in this matchMtsapere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.47

Saint-Pierroise

1.67

Mtsapere

1.47

Saint-Pierroise creates 14% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.33

creates per match

0.60

2.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Saint-Pierroise

1.33

Mtsapere

0.60

allows per match

Saint-Pierroise

2.33

Mtsapere

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saint-Pierroise+0.00on par

Mtsapere+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint-Pierroise ↓

Mtsapere →

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Saint-Pierroise or draw

66%

Saint-Pierroise or Mtsapere

76%

Draw or Mtsapere

58%

Winning margin

Saint-Pierroise wins by 2+

22%

Mtsapere wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Saint-Pierroise 1+ goals

81%

Saint-Pierroise 2+ goals

50%

Saint-Pierroise 3+ goals

23%

Mtsapere 1+ goals

77%

Mtsapere 2+ goals

43%

Mtsapere 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Saint-Pierroise (draw refunded)

56%

Mtsapere (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Saint-Pierroise at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Mtsapere away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Saint-Pierroise attack 1.33 + Mtsapere defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Mtsapere attack 0.60 + Saint-Pierroise defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Saint-Pierroise scores more

42%

level

24%

Mtsapere scores more

34%

Saint-Pierroise at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Saint-Pierroise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

L. Rivière

59'

A. El Delal Eddine← F. Mohamed

59'

N. Mari← B. Ybnou Charaf

67'

M. Randrianarisoa← A. Vardapin

73'

D. Ali Nokowa← I. Issouf Sidi

77'

N. Ousséni← S. Papin

80'

D. Ali Nokowa

88'

J. Babas← P. Razakanantenaina

Saint-Pierroise

Mtsapere

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: C. Dafreville

67'▲M. Randrianarisoa←▼A. Vardapin

77'▲N. Ousséni←▼S. Papin

88'▲J. Babas←▼P. Razakanantenaina

Saint-Pierroise substitutes

RandrianarisoaOusséniBabasLagarrigueTseng-ThonFontaineWilson

Manager: I. Chaquir

59'▲A. El Delal Eddine←▼F. Mohamed

59'▲N. Mari←▼B. Ybnou Charaf

73'▲D. Ali Nokowa←▼I. Issouf Sidi

Mtsapere substitutes

EddineMariNokowaMohamadHalifaMohamedAli