Saint-Omer 1–1 Saint-Denis: Result & Stats

Saint-Omer

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Saint-Denis

11/18/2023

Coupe de France · 7th RoundStade Gaston Bonnet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Saint-Omer28%

×Draw22%

Saint-Denis50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saint-OmerExpected goals in this matchSaint-Denis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.95

Saint-Omer

1.42

Saint-Denis

1.95

Saint-Denis creates 37% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

0.83

creates per match

2.57

1.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Saint-Omer

0.83

Saint-Denis

2.57

allows per match

Saint-Omer

1.33

Saint-Denis

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saint-Omer+0.00on par

Saint-Denis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint-Omer ↓

Saint-Denis →

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Saint-Omer or draw

50%

Saint-Omer or Saint-Denis

78%

Draw or Saint-Denis

72%

Winning margin

Saint-Omer wins by 2+

12%

Saint-Denis wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Saint-Omer 1+ goals

76%

Saint-Omer 2+ goals

41%

Saint-Omer 3+ goals

17%

Saint-Denis 1+ goals

86%

Saint-Denis 2+ goals

58%

Saint-Denis 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Saint-Omer (draw refunded)

36%

Saint-Denis (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Saint-Omer at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Saint-Denis away — creates 2.57, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Saint-Omer attack 0.83 + Saint-Denis defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Saint-Denis attack 2.57 + Saint-Omer defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Saint-Omer scores more

28%

level

22%

Saint-Denis scores more

50%

Saint-Denis at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Saint-Denis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff