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Saint-Malo vs Guingamp — Coupe de France 2018

Saint-Malo
Saint-Malo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Guingamp
Guingamp
11/18/2023Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundStade de Marville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Saint-Malo25%
×Draw20%
Guingamp55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint-Malo
1.44
Guingamp
2.23

Guingamp creates 55% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Saint-Malo
1.80
Guingamp
2.85

allows per match

Saint-Malo
1.60
Guingamp
1.08

finishing

Saint-Malo+0.00on par
Guingamp+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint-Malo ↓

Guingamp →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Saint-Malo or draw
45%
Saint-Malo or Guingamp
80%
Draw or Guingamp
75%

Winning margin

Saint-Malo wins by 2+
11%
Guingamp wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Saint-Malo 1+ goals
76%
Saint-Malo 2+ goals
42%
Saint-Malo 3+ goals
18%
Guingamp 1+ goals
89%
Guingamp 2+ goals
65%
Guingamp 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Saint-Malo (draw refunded)
31%
Guingamp (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint-Malo at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Guingamp away — creates 2.85, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint-Malo attack 1.80 + Guingamp defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.44

Guingamp attack 2.85 + Saint-Malo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Saint-Malo scores more
25%
level
20%
Guingamp scores more
55%

Guingamp at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Guingamp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Saint-Malo 2–2 Guingamp

Saint-Malo and Guingamp drew 2-2 in Coupe de France on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de Marville in Saint-Malo.