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Saint-Malo vs Bastia — Coupe de France 2018

Saint-Malo
Saint-Malo
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bastia
Bastiaadvanced
Unknown 120+5' (pen), 120+3' (pen), 120+2' (pen), 120+1' (pen)
Unknown 120+6' (pen), 120+5' (pen), 120+4' (pen), 120+3' (pen), 120+1' (pen)
11/29/2025Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 128

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Saint-Malo26%
×Draw22%
Bastia52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint-Malo
1.34
Bastia
1.97

Bastia creates 47% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Saint-Malo
1.80
Bastia
2.33

allows per match

Saint-Malo
1.60
Bastia
0.89

finishing

Saint-Malo+0.00on par
Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint-Malo ↓

Bastia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Saint-Malo or draw
48%
Saint-Malo or Bastia
78%
Draw or Bastia
74%

Winning margin

Saint-Malo wins by 2+
11%
Bastia wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Saint-Malo 1+ goals
74%
Saint-Malo 2+ goals
39%
Saint-Malo 3+ goals
15%
Bastia 1+ goals
86%
Bastia 2+ goals
58%
Bastia 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Saint-Malo (draw refunded)
33%
Bastia (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint-Malo at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Bastia away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint-Malo attack 1.80 + Bastia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.34

Bastia attack 2.33 + Saint-Malo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Saint-Malo scores more
26%
level
22%
Bastia scores more
52%

Bastia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

120+1'
Penalty
120+1'
Penalty
120+2'
Penalty
120+2'
Missed penalty
120+3'
Penalty
120+3'
Penalty
120+4'
Missed penalty
120+4'
Penalty
120+5'
Penalty
120+5'
Penalty
120+6'
Missed penalty
120+6'
Penalty
Saint-Malo
Bastia
G. Corbin
Manager: G. Corbin
Michel Moretti
Manager: Michel Moretti

Match Recap: Saint-Malo vs Bastia

Saint-Malo and Bastia drew 0-0 in Coupe de France on November 29, 2025.

Goals: ? (120+1' pen, 120+1' pen, 120+2' pen, 120+3' pen, 120+3' pen, 120+4' pen, 120+5' pen, 120+5' pen, 120+6' pen).