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Saint-Luc vs Tanganyika — Ligue 1 2019

Saint-Luc
Saint-Luc
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Tanganyika
Tanganyika
12/26/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Saint-Luc42%
×Draw32%
Tanganyika26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint-Luc
1.08
Tanganyika
0.77

Saint-Luc creates 40% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 31 away

creates per match

Saint-Luc
0.87
Tanganyika
0.94

allows per match

Saint-Luc
0.60
Tanganyika
1.29

finishing

Saint-Luc+0.00on par
Tanganyika+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint-Luc ↓

Tanganyika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Saint-Luc or draw
74%
Saint-Luc or Tanganyika
68%
Draw or Tanganyika
58%

Winning margin

Saint-Luc wins by 2+
17%
Tanganyika wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Saint-Luc 1+ goals
66%
Saint-Luc 2+ goals
29%
Saint-Luc 3+ goals
10%
Tanganyika 1+ goals
54%
Tanganyika 2+ goals
18%
Tanganyika 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Saint-Luc (draw refunded)
62%
Tanganyika (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint-Luc at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Tanganyika away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint-Luc attack 0.87 + Tanganyika defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Tanganyika attack 0.94 + Saint-Luc defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Saint-Luc scores more
42%
level
32%
Tanganyika scores more
26%

Saint-Luc at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Saint-Luc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Saint-Luc 0–2 Tanganyika

Tanganyika beat Saint-Luc 2-0 in Ligue 1 on December 26, 2025.