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Saint-Luc vs Sanga Balende — Ligue 1 2019

Saint-Luc
Saint-Luc
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sanga Balende
Sanga Balende
1/7/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Saint-Luc49%
×Draw32%
Sanga Balende20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint-Luc
1.14
Sanga Balende
0.61

Saint-Luc creates 87% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 84 away

creates per match

Saint-Luc
0.87
Sanga Balende
0.63

allows per match

Saint-Luc
0.60
Sanga Balende
1.40

finishing

Saint-Luc+0.00on par
Sanga Balende+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint-Luc ↓

Sanga Balende →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Saint-Luc or draw
80%
Saint-Luc or Sanga Balende
68%
Draw or Sanga Balende
51%

Winning margin

Saint-Luc wins by 2+
21%
Sanga Balende wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Saint-Luc 1+ goals
68%
Saint-Luc 2+ goals
32%
Saint-Luc 3+ goals
11%
Sanga Balende 1+ goals
46%
Sanga Balende 2+ goals
13%
Sanga Balende 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Saint-Luc (draw refunded)
71%
Sanga Balende (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint-Luc at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Sanga Balende away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint-Luc attack 0.87 + Sanga Balende defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.14

Sanga Balende attack 0.63 + Saint-Luc defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Saint-Luc scores more
49%
level
32%
Sanga Balende scores more
20%

Saint-Luc at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Saint-Luc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Saint-Luc 1–1 Sanga Balende

Saint-Luc and Sanga Balende drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on January 7, 2026.