Saint-Luc 1–1 Groupe Bazano: Result & Stats

Saint-Luc

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Groupe Bazano

3/27/2026

Ligue 1 · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Saint-Luc45%

×Draw33%

Groupe Bazano22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saint-LucExpected goals in this matchGroupe Bazano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.65

Saint-Luc

1.07

Groupe Bazano

0.65

Saint-Luc creates 65% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 73 away

0.87

creates per match

0.70

0.60

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Saint-Luc

0.87

Groupe Bazano

0.70

allows per match

Saint-Luc

0.60

Groupe Bazano

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saint-Luc+0.00on par

Groupe Bazano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint-Luc ↓

Groupe Bazano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Saint-Luc or draw

78%

Saint-Luc or Groupe Bazano

67%

Draw or Groupe Bazano

55%

Winning margin

Saint-Luc wins by 2+

19%

Groupe Bazano wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Saint-Luc 1+ goals

66%

Saint-Luc 2+ goals

29%

Saint-Luc 3+ goals

9%

Groupe Bazano 1+ goals

48%

Groupe Bazano 2+ goals

14%

Groupe Bazano 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Saint-Luc (draw refunded)

67%

Groupe Bazano (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint-Luc at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Groupe Bazano away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.27 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint-Luc attack 0.87 + Groupe Bazano defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Groupe Bazano attack 0.70 + Saint-Luc defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Saint-Luc scores more

45%

level

33%

Groupe Bazano scores more

22%

Saint-Luc at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Saint-Luc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff