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Saint-Luc vs FC Tshikas — Ligue 1 2019

Saint-Luc
Saint-Luc
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Tshikas
FC Tshikas
2/24/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Saint-Luc52%
×Draw30%
FC Tshikas19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint-Luc
1.27
FC Tshikas
0.64

Saint-Luc creates 98% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Saint-Luc
0.87
FC Tshikas
0.67

allows per match

Saint-Luc
0.60
FC Tshikas
1.67

finishing

Saint-Luc+0.00on par
FC Tshikas+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint-Luc ↓

FC Tshikas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Saint-Luc or draw
81%
Saint-Luc or FC Tshikas
70%
Draw or FC Tshikas
48%

Winning margin

Saint-Luc wins by 2+
24%
FC Tshikas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Saint-Luc 1+ goals
72%
Saint-Luc 2+ goals
36%
Saint-Luc 3+ goals
14%
FC Tshikas 1+ goals
47%
FC Tshikas 2+ goals
14%
FC Tshikas 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Saint-Luc (draw refunded)
73%
FC Tshikas (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint-Luc at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

FC Tshikas away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint-Luc attack 0.87 + FC Tshikas defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.27

FC Tshikas attack 0.67 + Saint-Luc defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Saint-Luc scores more
52%
level
30%
FC Tshikas scores more
19%

Saint-Luc at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Saint-Luc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Saint-Luc 1–0 FC Tshikas

Saint-Luc beat FC Tshikas 1-0 in Ligue 1 on February 24, 2026.