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Saint-Luc vs Don Bosco — Ligue 1 2019

Saint-Luc
Saint-Luc
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Don Bosco
Don Bosco
1/4/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Saint-Luc41%
×Draw33%
Don Bosco25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint-Luc
1.01
Don Bosco
0.72

Saint-Luc creates 40% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 96 away

creates per match

Saint-Luc
0.87
Don Bosco
0.85

allows per match

Saint-Luc
0.60
Don Bosco
1.16

finishing

Saint-Luc+0.00on par
Don Bosco+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint-Luc ↓

Don Bosco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Saint-Luc or draw
75%
Saint-Luc or Don Bosco
67%
Draw or Don Bosco
59%

Winning margin

Saint-Luc wins by 2+
16%
Don Bosco wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Saint-Luc 1+ goals
64%
Saint-Luc 2+ goals
27%
Saint-Luc 3+ goals
8%
Don Bosco 1+ goals
51%
Don Bosco 2+ goals
16%
Don Bosco 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Saint-Luc (draw refunded)
62%
Don Bosco (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint-Luc at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Don Bosco away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.16 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint-Luc attack 0.87 + Don Bosco defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.01

Don Bosco attack 0.85 + Saint-Luc defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Saint-Luc scores more
41%
level
33%
Don Bosco scores more
25%

Saint-Luc at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Saint-Luc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Saint-Luc 0 – 1 Don Bosco

Don Bosco beat Saint-Luc 1-0 in Ligue 1 on January 4, 2026.