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Saint-Luc vs CS Manika — Ligue 1 2019

Saint-Luc
Saint-Luc
FT
1 – 0
CS Manika
CS Manika
3/23/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Saint-Luc38%
×Draw34%
CS Manika28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint-Luc
0.94
CS Manika
0.77

Saint-Luc creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Saint-Luc
0.87
CS Manika
0.93

allows per match

Saint-Luc
0.60
CS Manika
1.00

finishing

Saint-Luc+0.00on par
CS Manika+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint-Luc ↓

CS Manika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Saint-Luc or draw
72%
Saint-Luc or CS Manika
66%
Draw or CS Manika
62%

Winning margin

Saint-Luc wins by 2+
14%
CS Manika wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Saint-Luc 1+ goals
61%
Saint-Luc 2+ goals
24%
Saint-Luc 3+ goals
7%
CS Manika 1+ goals
54%
CS Manika 2+ goals
18%
CS Manika 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Saint-Luc (draw refunded)
57%
CS Manika (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint-Luc at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

CS Manika away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint-Luc attack 0.87 + CS Manika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

CS Manika attack 0.93 + Saint-Luc defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Saint-Luc scores more
38%
level
34%
CS Manika scores more
28%

Saint-Luc at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Saint-Luc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Saint-Luc 1–0 CS Manika

Saint-Luc beat CS Manika 1-0 in Ligue 1 on March 23, 2026.