Saint Louis 2–1 Wichita: Result & Stats

Saint Louis

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Wichita

5/22/2022

USL League Two · Round 11Tony Glavin Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Saint Louis68%

×Draw17%

Wichita14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saint LouisExpected goals in this matchWichita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.10

Saint Louis

2.56

Wichita

1.10

Saint Louis creates 133% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

2.29

creates per match

0.78

1.43

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Saint Louis

2.29

Wichita

0.78

allows per match

Saint Louis

1.43

Wichita

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saint Louis+0.00on par

Wichita+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Louis ↓

Wichita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Saint Louis or draw

86%

Saint Louis or Wichita

83%

Draw or Wichita

32%

Winning margin

Saint Louis wins by 2+

47%

Wichita wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Saint Louis 1+ goals

92%

Saint Louis 2+ goals

72%

Saint Louis 3+ goals

46%

Wichita 1+ goals

67%

Wichita 2+ goals

30%

Wichita 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Saint Louis (draw refunded)

83%

Wichita (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Louis at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Wichita away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Louis attack 2.29 + Wichita defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.56

Wichita attack 0.78 + Saint Louis defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Saint Louis scores more

68%

level

17%

Wichita scores more

14%

Saint Louis at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff