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Saint Louis vs Tulsa Roughnecks — USL Championship 2018

Saint Louis
Saint Louis
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
10/11/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 56Toyota Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Saint Louis51%
×Draw24%
Tulsa Roughnecks24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Louis
1.68
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.08

Saint Louis creates 56% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 130 away

creates per match

Saint Louis
1.55
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.19

allows per match

Saint Louis
0.98
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.81

finishing

Saint Louis+0.00on par
Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Louis ↓

Tulsa Roughnecks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Saint Louis or draw
76%
Saint Louis or Tulsa Roughnecks
76%
Draw or Tulsa Roughnecks
49%

Winning margin

Saint Louis wins by 2+
28%
Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Saint Louis 1+ goals
81%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
50%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
24%
Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
66%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
29%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Saint Louis (draw refunded)
68%
Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Louis at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.98 · 47 matches

Tulsa Roughnecks away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Louis attack 1.55 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.68

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.19 + Saint Louis defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Saint Louis scores more
51%
level
24%
Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
24%

Saint Louis at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saint Louis vs Tulsa Roughnecks

Saint Louis beat Tulsa Roughnecks 1-0 in USL Championship on October 11, 2018.

The match was played at Toyota Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri).