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Saint Louis vs Tampa Bay Rowdies — USL Championship 2018

Saint Louis
Saint Louis
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Tampa Bay Rowdies
3/23/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 5Toyota Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Saint Louis42%
×Draw27%
Tampa Bay Rowdies32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Louis
1.37
Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.16

Saint Louis creates 18% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 135 away

creates per match

Saint Louis
1.55
Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.33

allows per match

Saint Louis
0.98
Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.19

finishing

Saint Louis+0.00on par
Tampa Bay Rowdies+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Louis ↓

Tampa Bay Rowdies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Saint Louis or draw
68%
Saint Louis or Tampa Bay Rowdies
73%
Draw or Tampa Bay Rowdies
58%

Winning margin

Saint Louis wins by 2+
19%
Tampa Bay Rowdies wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Saint Louis 1+ goals
75%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
40%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
16%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 1+ goals
69%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 2+ goals
32%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Saint Louis (draw refunded)
57%
Tampa Bay Rowdies (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Louis at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.98 · 47 matches

Tampa Bay Rowdies away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.19 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Louis attack 1.55 + Tampa Bay Rowdies defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.37

Tampa Bay Rowdies attack 1.33 + Saint Louis defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Saint Louis scores more
42%
level
27%
Tampa Bay Rowdies scores more
32%

Saint Louis at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saint Louis vs Tampa Bay Rowdies

Saint Louis and Tampa Bay Rowdies drew 1-1 in USL Championship on March 23, 2019.

The match was played at Toyota Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri).