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Saint Louis vs Springfield ASC — USL League Two 2018

Saint Louis
Saint Louis
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Springfield ASC
Springfield ASC
6/18/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 40Tony Glavin Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Saint Louis66%
×Draw18%
Springfield ASC16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Louis
2.57
Springfield ASC
1.21

Saint Louis creates 112% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

Saint Louis
2.29
Springfield ASC
1.00

allows per match

Saint Louis
1.43
Springfield ASC
2.85

finishing

Saint Louis+0.00on par
Springfield ASC+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Louis ↓

Springfield ASC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Saint Louis or draw
84%
Saint Louis or Springfield ASC
82%
Draw or Springfield ASC
34%

Winning margin

Saint Louis wins by 2+
45%
Springfield ASC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Saint Louis 1+ goals
92%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
72%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
47%
Springfield ASC 1+ goals
70%
Springfield ASC 2+ goals
34%
Springfield ASC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Saint Louis (draw refunded)
80%
Springfield ASC (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Louis at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Springfield ASC away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Louis attack 2.29 + Springfield ASC defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.57

Springfield ASC attack 1.00 + Saint Louis defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Saint Louis scores more
66%
level
18%
Springfield ASC scores more
16%

Saint Louis at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saint Louis vs Springfield ASC

Saint Louis beat Springfield ASC 4-1 in USL League Two on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Tony Glavin Soccer Complex in Cottleville, Missouri.