Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Saint Louis vs Sacramento Republic — USL Championship 2018

Saint Louis
Saint Louis
FT
3 – 4
Sacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic
8/14/2016USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 33World Wide Technology Soccer Park (St. Louis, Missouri)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Saint Louis43%
×Draw27%
Sacramento Republic30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Louis
1.35
Sacramento Republic
1.08

Saint Louis creates 25% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 132 away

creates per match

Saint Louis
1.55
Sacramento Republic
1.19

allows per match

Saint Louis
0.98
Sacramento Republic
1.16

finishing

Saint Louis+0.00on par
Sacramento Republic+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Louis ↓

Sacramento Republic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Saint Louis or draw
70%
Saint Louis or Sacramento Republic
73%
Draw or Sacramento Republic
57%

Winning margin

Saint Louis wins by 2+
20%
Sacramento Republic wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Saint Louis 1+ goals
74%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
39%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
15%
Sacramento Republic 1+ goals
66%
Sacramento Republic 2+ goals
29%
Sacramento Republic 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Saint Louis (draw refunded)
59%
Sacramento Republic (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Louis at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.98 · 47 matches

Sacramento Republic away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.16 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Louis attack 1.55 + Sacramento Republic defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sacramento Republic attack 1.19 + Saint Louis defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Saint Louis scores more
43%
level
27%
Sacramento Republic scores more
30%

Saint Louis at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Saint Louis 3–4 Sacramento Republic

Sacramento Republic beat Saint Louis 4-3 in USL Championship on August 14, 2016.

The match was played at World Wide Technology Soccer Park (St. Louis, Missouri).