Saint Louis 0–0 Rio Grande Valley: Result & Stats

Saint Louis

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rio Grande Valley

7/1/2018

USL Championship · Round 27Toyota Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Saint Louis49%

×Draw25%

Rio Grande Valley26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saint LouisExpected goals in this matchRio Grande Valley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.11

Saint Louis

1.60

Rio Grande Valley

1.11

Saint Louis creates 44% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 93 away

1.55

creates per match

1.25

0.98

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Saint Louis

1.55

Rio Grande Valley

1.25

allows per match

Saint Louis

0.98

Rio Grande Valley

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saint Louis+0.00on par

Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Louis ↓

Rio Grande Valley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Saint Louis or draw

74%

Saint Louis or Rio Grande Valley

75%

Draw or Rio Grande Valley

51%

Winning margin

Saint Louis wins by 2+

25%

Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Saint Louis 1+ goals

80%

Saint Louis 2+ goals

47%

Saint Louis 3+ goals

22%

Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals

67%

Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals

30%

Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Saint Louis (draw refunded)

65%

Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Louis at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.98 · 47 matches

Rio Grande Valley away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Louis attack 1.55 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.60

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.25 + Saint Louis defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Saint Louis scores more

49%

level

25%

Rio Grande Valley scores more

26%

Saint Louis at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff